The chart below from Thompson Reuters compares the crude oil price and Nigeria real GDP growth from 2007 to 2015.
As oil prices crashed in 2008, Nigeria real GDP actually went up in 2009 and 2010. This contrasts to the fall in the oil prices in 2015 and a recession in 2016.
While we can reach many conclusions from interpreting this chart, what is clear is the fall in oil prices alone cannot be a cause for a year long recession. A key culprit in 2016 was certainly the Capital Control policy that restricted foreign currency availability and a fall in household expenditure as prices of inelastic necessities like petrol and power went up.
This is important so policy makers take into cognizance the need to boost household expenditures and freeing the business environment from restrictive policies to exit the recession
