PDP has an OJ Simpson problem

The campaign of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi has an O J Simpson problem.


Orenthal James Simpson was arrested for the alleged murder, of his ex-wife Nicole Simpson and her boyfriend Ron Goldman, both were found stabbed to death.

In legal terms, this case was a slam dunk for the police and prosecution…let me review some key evidence gathered…

  1. O J Simpsons car has traces of his dead wife’s and boyfriends’ blood
  2. Strands of hair consistent with O J Simpson’s were found on wife’s boyfriends’ shirt
  3. The left-hand glove found at Brown’s home had traces of blood from O J Simpson, how wife and her boyfriend and the right-hand glove found at Simpson’s home proved to be a match to the left glove.
  4. “The bloody shoe prints at the crime scene were identified by FBI shoe expert William Bodziak as having been made by a pair of extremely rare and expensive Bruno Magli shoes; only 29 pairs of this style were sold in the U.S. The large size 12 prints matched Simpson’s shoe size.

I think you get the picture, these were just some of the evidence presented by the prosecution.


Yet O J Simpson was acquitted? Why? the prosecution was unable to convience the jury beyond reasonable doubt that O J Simpson killed his wife and boyfriend. The Défense was able to cast reasonable doubt on the prosecution’s case.


Stay with me.


What happened? Well the prosecution got sloppy, they used the DNA from the blood on the scene as evidence, but DNA was still new at that time, they did not cover the blood from sunlight and the defence successfully argued to the jury that the DNA was contaminated, so all the blood stuff was out. There is a lot more to this, you can google the details, but the lesson is clear, evidence is not enough? You must convience the jury with that evidence.


Let’s come back to Nigeria.


The evidence of incompetence is overwhelming…


  1. Boko Haram is on the offensive, they are sacking army bases, shooting down air force helicopters and retaking villages.
  2. The Nigerian economy is weak, so weak it cannot create a net job. Poverty in Nigeria is up
  3. The anticorruption fight is sectional, selective and sloppy. The President own Chief of staff stole money from IDP, NOTHING has happened to him, in fact he is campaigning for the President.


So, on the three key planks that Buhari ran on, Anticorruption, Economy and Security, Buhari has failed…but remember, evidence is not enough, the jury must be convinced that Buhari has failed.


Facts are not enough.


The Jury will not find Buhari guilty because Boko Haram has retaken Baga, the Atiku and Obi team must show the Jury that evey kobo spent to “redefeat” the already defeated Boko Haram is less money to spend on building roads to take tomato from Kaduna to Lagos.


If tomato prices fall, they inflation falls.


If Inflation falls, then Monetary Policy Rate falls


If Monetary Policy Rate falls then Stock Market rises


If Stock market rises, then household wealth rises


If Household wealth rises, poverty falls.


I have linked Boko Haram attacks in Baga to wealth in Lekki and Retirement Saving Accounts. The jury, sorry voters in Alimosho do not care about Baga and Boko Haram, but they cares that they cannot sell land in Lekki because poverty has increased, thus no buyers. A Political campaign is not an exercise in fact generation and debates, it’s an exercise in speaking to a jury of voters and convincing them that the man in the dock is “guilty” of failing to keep his promises.


Alhaji Atiku, your job is not to defend your record, your job is to ask Buhari to defend his record. You job is to explain to the jury why they should find the “defendant” guilty. If you mishandle data and evidence, it will be thrown out by the judge and the jury will not consider that data in the final determination of guilt.


Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, data is enough, you need to use data to convince a jury….key point…CONVINCE A JURY


I rest.

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