The Buhari administration has now overseen the Nigerian Federation for 24 months, the jury is not out, the results are in, it’s been a failed 24 months. “Change” from the status quo was promised, but has not been delivered.
Candidate Buhari ran on a three-point agenda, namely
- Security
- Fighting corruption
- The Economy
So, let’s score Mr President on his own agenda
Security:
before 2015, Boko Haram were on rampage, they held territory and citizens, and the military struggled to contain them. We note the past administration succeeded in pushing Boko Haram from the urban cities back to Sambisa forest and reequipping the armed forces. President Buhari kept up this fight against Boko Haram, and has succeeded in capturing their base and returning many abducted girls from these terrorists. However, the Buhari administration has proved inept in managing the “peace”. Nigerian citizens rescued from Boko Haram are starving in Internally Displaced Persons camps.
The administration has failed to capitalize on global attention on the Chibok girls abduction to raise humanitarian and development assistance funds to deploy to these devastated areas. A North-East Development Commission has been created, its funding is anemic, its scope of operations and coverage unclear. The main failure of the Buhari administration in terms of Security is its view of ONLY Boko Haram as the National Security threat. Almost every State in Nigeria has reported attacks by marauding cow herders, yet there has been no visible strategy to stop it. The scope of attacks are only matched by the volume of silence from the administration. Take Agatu, the town in Benue State was sacked by cattle herders, the United Nations Rep visited Agatu after the violence and called it genocide, but the Inspector General of Police went to Agatu and held a “town hall” with the self-confessed perpetrators of that genocide, no arrests. in 24 months, Nigeria has no seen ab abatement of these attacks, and thus we score the administration a low point in security of lives and property…
Fighting Corruption:
There is a quote I read, “The Buhari administration is not fighting corruption, but is fighting corrupt people”. This quote exemplifies the administration approach to corruption.
The EFCC is stellar in terms of arrests but weak in convictions. it seems the anti-corruption war is a made for TV war, with cameras, tweets and open media trials, but lacking in judicial conclusions. The APC government cann0t confirm a nominee of the President to head the EFCC, based on a security report written by the Secret Police. The EFCC raids a flat in Ikoyi with dollars allegedly owned by the Defense Intelligence Agency. These show a lack of detailed investigation and case building by the EFCC. To capThe EFCC could not tell the Senate during the Chairman’s confirmation hearings how much they had recovered from arrests and seizures since 2015. In terms of hard numbers, in 2016 the Buhari administration had 125 convictions, about the same as the convictions as the past administration in 2014. On Corruption, a lot of noise , but far less institutional changes have been enacted
The economy
On the economy, the Buhari Administration has performed so badly, the question has been asked of the have an economic team.
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, Since coming to power in June 2o15 up to February 2017, the Buhari administration has earned N5.82trillion, but has spent N10.69trillion, so, a deficit of N4.87t.
This deficit is high but deficit spending are stimulative if spent on job creating activities like infrastructure spending. So where did the Buhari administration spend the N10,69trillion? well 77% or N8.28 trillion of that went to recurrent expenditure for items such as salaries and allowances.
let me put this in another way, Under the Buhari Administration, 100% of earnings of the Federal Government (FGN) since June 2015 has gone 100% into recurrent expenditures i.e. Salaries and Allowances…To be clear, if the FGN earned N100.00, they used N100.00 to pay salaries…. Then they borrowed even more to pay more salaries…. This spending on recurrent is happening when Nigeria was neck deep in recession. How does an economy grow if the government is borrowing to consume?
The administration lost momentum by not naming an Economic Team to drive strategy. And articulate an economic direction to enable the private sector to plan. In terms of policy direction, the administration was lethargic in responding to an energy crisis it inherited by not removing fuel subsidy immediately it came into power. After months of debilitating strikes that paralyzed economic activities, the administration partial “modulated” fuel prices and increased the pump prices of petrol, so why the delay? ditto the foreign exchange policy, a scattered policy of trying to centrally determine the exchange rate of the Naira, which failed. These delays and policy inertia were unnecessary and contributed to the economy being stuck in negative growth.
The Administration failed to continue and build on the successful polices of the past administration. the Cassava bread policy for instance was left to wallow, when the benefits were well known. The administration also failed to hold the States to account for the record levels of bailouts given to them.
The economic fortunes of Nigerians have not improved, unemployment is up, food prices are up, energy supply has not demonstrated improved. The economy is still in a re cession, and as I type there is no budget for 2017.
Are there Opportunities? yes across Nigeria there are opportunities like the digital broadcasting via the switchover to Digital Terrestrial Television, DTT. The administration has not communicated the benefits of this nor recognized the job creating effects this new spectrum offers especially for youth unemployment. After the spectrum licenses was launched, it’s been largely abandoned, its opportunities not understood. The Nigerian arts, entertainment and recreation sector is posting growth figures in real terms according to National Bureau of Statistics but it only contributes 0.26 percent to real GDP. A well-crafted strategy can digitize Nigerian music and movies, export them, create revenue streams for the government and create jobs.
The Buhari administration needs quick wins that will create jobs and impact on the lives of Nigerians. Wasteful welfare scheme must be abandoned, security needs to be tightened.
If Buhari cannot succeed in fighting corruption or providing jobs, then I fear political cynicism will develop and cement and the masses of unemployed youth will look elsewhere for a savior, somewhere away from politicians…. that is the danger.
Its not too late, oil prices have stabilized, militant attacks are down, even BREXIT provides and opportunity for Nigeria to rengotiate trade deals with the UK.
The APC must begin to govern and show results. The honey moon is long over.
