Goodluck Ebele Johnathan (GEJ), a Minority Christian from the South was allowed to “see out” the position “earmarked” for a Northern Muslim in 2011. His (GEJ) personal & party (PDP) error was to contest again for the Presidency in 2015.
GEJ had two basic assumptions;
1. Voters will look at performance not tribe
2. The Christian voters wont vote for a Muslim they had rejected in the polls three times.
GEJ reasoned that Nigerians were rational, that if investment was poured into the Northern part of Nigeria, he could win a second term in 2015 with support from the North and South. in effect, he assumed he could defeat tribalism via performance.
So GEJ embarked on an ambitious policy of delivering investment projects in the North to court Northern votes. A few examples;
1. Transportation: Railways; the first Standard rail in Nigeria was built from Abuja to Kaduna. This route was prioritized over the more economically viable Lagos to Ibadan railway or East to West railway. Airports were modernized.
2. Education: hundreds of new Schools, Primary, Secondary & University were established in the North
3. Agriculture: Credit to farmers, risk pooling to bank lending, Dry season rice farming, Fertilizer distribution via phones, irrigation dams all delivered….We can continue but it will be a distraction
…Irrespective of these “overtures” the North including majority Christian States in the Middle Belt joined the APC mega party and defeated the PDP. Once GEJ decided to run for the Presidency, to take the “slot” of a Northern muslim, he lost 50% of the county, effectively nothing could change that. The APC and President Buhari are a direct creation of the failed desire of a Southern Christian to substitute tribe with performance.
Tribalism and religion is more important to Nigerians than GDP growth. Since the period of national development plans by Gowan, no other Nigerian leader invested more in the Northern part of Nigeria like Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, its just the facts.
So what is the political lesson? When in power in Nigeria, secure your base…dont chase exotic concepts of “equal development” like GEJ. To that end, criticism of Buhari as a tribal leader miss the point. Buhari understands when chips are down ONLY his base will back him. If GEJ built schools in the North and lost elections badly in the North, why should Buhari build a bridge in Onitsha? He has no votes there. Thus the much maligned “5% /97%” comment by President Buhari is actually a tested philosophy to win reelection in Nigeria. It reflects the tribal Nigeria.
If GEJ had handed over power to a Northerner in 2015…PDP will still be the largest party in Africa today….APC would NEVER have been formed.The ONLY time the North has failed to vote for Buhari in Presidential elections in massive numbers is when another Northerner the late YarAdua was contesting. If dollar is N5,000 to $1, and elections are held today, Buhari will win all Northern States , especially if opponent is from South.
So if our democracy is based on tribe and religion of candidates why not simply zone and rotate Presidency to all zones every 5 years…? every 5 years, the entire nation elects a President from a pool of candidates from ONLY one zone, save time and money.
APC needs to come down from the hubris of “we defeated PDP with Change”…. No Sirs…. Tribalism and Religion won….Nigeria is performance blind.
My own is to post….
PS
The post has words like “Christian” “North” etc….they will come across as stereotypical and prejudicial, however, the post needs these words to make it “real”….
